Taliban - A Proxy of Pakistan
| Author:Colonel Ranvir Singh Tomar (Retd) |
US Withdrawal
On 15 August, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran khan making comments on US withdrawal from Afghanistan ‘that chains of slavery have been broken ’ when ISI coordinated Taliban fighters entered Kabul city. The unimaginable sudden fall of Kabul not only surprised the world but caught the Americans in such a dangerous situation at the airport, whether to evacuate foreign nationals or save thousands of Afghan nationals who thronged the airport for the fear of Taliban. Taliban had pre empted Americans disregarding the peace agreement signed in Doha in February 2020 regarding phased withdrawal of troops. World diplomatic corps suddenly woke up to a very dangerous situation where Afghan civilians and foreigners were found trapped in the blood bath on the streets of Kabul. The uncertainty and danger compelled US to again rush 6000 of its strong troops to siege control of Kabul international airport to evacuate foreign nationals safely keeping in view the deadline set up by Taliban as 31 August.
Sudden fleeing of the President Ashraf Ghani, a day prior, collapsed the entire administration and plunged Afghanistan into chaos and lawlessness. US trained and highly equipped 3 lakh strong Afghan National Army were left rudderless without command and control, who meekly surrendered without fighting. The Pakistan and Taliban were , in fact ,waiting for such situation to emerge since 20 long years, to sieze control of feudal ridden tribal nation. Afghanistan once again proved to be the graveyard of another empire . Pakistan is in greater hurry to establish Taliban regime and for that ; Haqqani Network has been assigned the control of Kabul to establish a proxy regime friendly to Pakistan. The dust does not seem to be settling down so easily in Afghanistan as Inter militant group rivalry has surfaced too, when deadly suicide bombing attacks were carried out by ISKP (the offshoot of ISIS) on Kabul Airport on 26 August in which more than 170 death causalities had occurred which included13 American soldiers .
Evolving Situation
Taliban has given assurance to 90 countries that their nationals will be safely evacuated from Kabul in a friendly gesture tantamount to secure recognition to their regime. International attention on Afghanistan has another dimension that it has brought back relevance to the debt ridden and terrorist labelled Pakistan to focus, so that its influence on Taliban can be explored by the world community. The inter group rivalry came into fore when a bloody battle broke out between Taliban and the Haqqani Network in which brother of Mulla Baradar has been injured.
National Resistance Front (NRF) previously known as Northern Alliance led by Tajik leaders Ahmed Masood and Amarulla Saleh has vowed not to accept Taliban control and will fight to save Afghanistan. Intense fight has erupted around Panjshir and Parwan region when Taliban had despatched thousands of fighters to defeat NRF fighters. Abdul Rashid Dostum , an ethnic Uzbek politician and former First Vice President and the Marshal of the Afghan National Army has also joined the NRF to fight Taliban. Latest reports vindicate Taliban cliam of having full control of Panjshir after they have captured Governor house. Ahmed Masood has claimed that Pakistan drone attacks and helicopters had supported Taliban offensive in Panjshir. America in their statement has asked India to support Resistance Front against Taliban.
More than 600 Americans including soldiers are still waiting to be evacuated from Mazar e Sharif airport since Taliban has suspended air evacuation operations from there. The Al Queda who made Afghanistan as safe heavens for hiding since 2001 has felicitated Taliban for establishment of an Emirate and hoped that Taliban would also make Kashmir free from India. ISKP ,who have home bases in Pakistan, are the arch rival to Taliban for making a deal with Americans. Taliban stand no chance against ISKP unless Tahrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Pakistan military fully support and equip Taliban. At the diplomatic level the UN Security Council has passed an resolution that they will not recognise Taliban regime in Afghanistan. In this resolution Russia and China have absented themselves. As for security of Indian nationals who are still stuck up in Kabul, Indian diplomats held talks with Taliban leaders in Doha for safe evacuations. Russia led Troika Plus meeting on Afghanistan comprising Pakistan, China, America and Russia held consultations with representatives of previous Afghanistan Government ,Taliban and other senior Afghan leaders for transition of power. Troika Plus aims to discuss ways to assist in intra Afghan talks to facilitate government formation, reduce the level of violence and to end the armed conflict.
Pakistan and China Strategy
Afghanistan being a landlocked country, traditionally depend on Pakistan for its economy, transit , trade ,supplies and materials. Afghan Pashtuns consider Pakistan their second home as there are nearly 3 million Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. The ethnic co religionist Pashtuns accounting 63 millions cohabit on both side of the 2670 kms long Durand line that makes Afghanistan an extension of Pakistan with strategic depth against India. Pakistan for its narrow interests has traditionally been engaged in illicit narcotic and drug trade in Afghanistan; working with tribal warlords. The drug money and extortion is the main source of money for Taliban for its sustenance and buying arms. The overall income generated by domestic consumption , production and exports of opiates in Afghanistan was estimated at between $1.2 billion and $2.1 billion in 2019. Taliban control over Afghanistan will afford freedom to terrorist organisations like Al Qaeda , ISIS , Jaish e Mohd and Lashkar e Toiba and provide home bases to regroup , recruit, train, locate and coordinate operations in a bigger scale in South Asia and spread to the Far East Asia. For Pakistan these terrorists act as militias and will be used against India in asymmetric war in Kashmir.
China, Pakistan and Taliban (CPT) nexus has been strategically nurtured for a long time to drain out American resources and bleed it like a Vietnam war. Pakistan under the shadow of China wants to create a friendly tribal medieval regime who are easy to be turned into vassal state to keep emerging power of India destabilised so that a rogue regime can be blamed for the follies of Pakistan and China in eventuality. India for all these years since 2001 has systematically contributed in the development of democracy and infrastructure of Afghanistan. China, through its support to Taliban, wants security of its ambitious CPEC project in Pakistan; and also Afghanistan’s inclusion in its Belt and Road Initiative project to ensure easy access to Central Asia. China’s interests are purely economic to exploit natural resources of Afghanistan for its raw materials needs for its surplus manufacturing capacity lying idle. China for long advocating move of American troops from Afghanistan as it afforded Americans a strategic foothold at the crossroad of Central Asia. By making Taliban rely on China for its diplomatic and financial support at this juncture, the underlying requirement for China is to keep Muslim Uyghur insurgency in Xinxiang under tight control.
Government Formation
Taliban and Pakistan supported Haqqani Network are engaged in bloody battle to get larger share and important portfolios in the interim government formation. Haqqani Network serves Pakistan purpose well first to act as counter weight to Taliban; and then by remaining subservient it will be puppet to Pakistan. Iran with interest of Shiite community of Hazara and Mazaris in mind expressed that future government should be multi ethnic. Russia has issued veiled warning that atrocities on Afghan citizens and women will not be acceptable to the world community and the future government should be ethnic pluralist.
Evidently the interim government has been formed with top leadership of Taliban and Haqqani Network with many UN declared international terrorists like Sirajuddin Haqqani who carry a reward of US $ 10 million dollars are part of the government. Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada has been declared as Supreme Leader with Mohd Hassan Akhund as the prime minister. Taliban wants that their top leaders who are on the list of United Nations as terrorists be taken off from that list as per Doha Peace Agreement. No representation has been given to the women in the interim government.
Indian Position
India is maintaining its declared zero tolerance position against terrorism towards Taliban. Indian Foreign Minister has announced that that present Taliban take over is just an arrangement and not an elected government. India has supported the UNSC resolution that no recognition to Taliban regime will be given. Indian diplomats held issue specific talks with Taliban to secure safe evacuation of Indians from Kabul. Taliban has suspended all trade with India with immediate effects. India has almost invested around US $ 3 billion in Afghanistan’s infrastructure which includes over 400 projects to build roads, dams, schools, libraries and even its parliament building. In fact India is one of the largest business partner of Afghanistan as India exported worth US $835 million dollars and imported about US $ 510 million dollars products. Taliban has cautiously conveyed that they will permit India to complete pending infrastructure projects much to the despise of Pakistan. India has maintained a position to wait and watch to see how the Taliban government recognises and adheres to the international protocols and treaties.
Important Lesons /Implications
What are the important lessons/ implications for the world with Taliban take over – ➢ Modernity has again succumbed against the radical Islam. Taliban are adherents to the radical Deobandi Islamic school and believe in establishment of Islamic Emirates and sharia laws. Taliban are opposed to modern education, working women and emphasises on strict dress code.
➢ Not a single muslim country has condemned Taliban for its barbaric actions against Afghan civilians. It implies that these countries have scant concerns for human rights and give tacit support to terrorist organisation.
➢ US withdrawal and Taliban takeover is viewed as victory of Islam and it may give rise to deadly terrorists attacks across the world.
➢ American invincibility comes under question and its status as super power has been eroded. After suicide attacks on Kabul airport, the US has been caught in difficult situation whether to again deploy troops in Afghanistan and restart the war or move out.
➢ Relevance of United Nations against international terrorism requires a fresh look de novo as it has failed in controlling the catastrophic situation.
➢ Russia led Troika Plus consultations with Taliban clearly suggest geo- politics of cold war era.
➢ China supports Taliban with bargain that atrocities against Uyghur muslims will not be exposed and Taliban will not support East Turkestan Independence Movement in Xinxiang region.
➢ Taliban is now the only terrorist organisation in the world which possess high technology surrendered US military hardware including tanks, artillery guns , combat helicopters and aircrafts; this gives them enhanced lethal capability in its strike reach.
➢ The world can not remain oblivious of possibility of Taliban getting access to Pakistan nuclear arsenal. A rogue regime is being perpetrated on world map by the dubious action of instant recognition by Pakistan and China.
➢ International terrorist group rivalry between ISKP and Taliban will develop into destabilising factor in South Asia.
➢ Iran may align with China, Pakistan and Taliban nexus to gain supremacy in Iraq, Yemen and also meddle in Israel - Palestine conflict.
➢ Pakistan is anxiously rushing for formation of Taliban government through Haqqani Network to facilitate shifting of Jaish e Mohd and Lashkar e Toiba bases from Pakistan to Afghanistan.
➢ Taliban legitimacy will give new dimension and fillip to international terrorism.
➢ Western media is conspicuous by its so low coverage of atrocities on Afghan civilians and harsh treatment being meted out to the women by Taliban. Al Jazeera has totally blacked out the events in Afghanistan. The bipartisan attitude of international media and their independence also come under question.
Actions Needed
What actions needs to be taken against the fast emerging disturbances in Afghanistan by the International community- ➢ First priority will be evacuation of stuck up foreigners from Afghanistan to save lives. ➢ Engage Taliban by UN for establishment of peace. Intra Afghan Peace Committee should comprise the members of all 14 ethnic communities in Afghanistan. 9 ➢ In the event of genocide of other minor ethnic groups by Taliban , the National Resistance Front be supported militarily by US and NATO . India should work in close coordination with US and Russia. ➢ Humanitarian aid be continued as UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has warned that food shortage is imminent in Afghanistan as agriculture is also failing this time. US $ 600 million dollars are urgently required to feed 11 million Afghan poor citizens. ➢ Pakistan to be given stern warning for military assistance including Pakistan fighters being provided to Taliban. ➢ Complete freeze of Afghanistan foreign assets and accounts by World Bank and IMF. ➢ No recognition to Taliban regime. No Taliban leaders like Mullah Barardar to be taken off the international terrorist list by the UN. ➢ Sanction against Pakistan to be placed as they have harboured, armed and trained Taliban by ISI. Entire operational planning and coordination between different Taliban groups and their objectives were planned and controlled by Pakistan government. The permanent solution to Afghan problem lies with the people of Afghanistan itself and their ultimate resolve towards adoption of democratic way of political life. The ultra conservative Pashtun tribal ways may be de- tasted by young Afghan generation whose imaginations have been fired up with modern lifestyle and good education which they experienced in last 20 years US presence .The old style Taliban government may not survive for long. It was not defeat of Americans in Afghanistan but it was the victory of Pakistan by deceiving and backstabbing Americans.
Written by Colonel R.S. Tomar